Walk together with me, everyone, down the road of College Football Playoff confusion.
No. 4 Penn State has one win against a team in the College Football Playoff rankings. No. 3 Texas, No. 6 Miami, No. 9 SMU and No. 10 Indiana have none. What those five teams have in common: one loss.
Meanwhile, I give you those with wins against the committee’s top 25: No. 7 Georgia (three), No. 13 Alabama (three), No. 2 Ohio State (two), No. 15 South Carolina (two) and No. 5 Notre Dame (one). What those five teams have in common: a combined seven losses to teams in the rankings.
Now I’m not a rocket scientist, but it appears those who play easier schedules have better records. This, of course, leaves two critical questions:
Why reward teams who have an easier path to success?
Why – and here’s the biggie – penalize teams for multiple losses to those teams in the top 25?
BREAKDOWN: Winners and losers from the College Football Playoff ranking
At some point, if the College Football Playoff continues along this path of using a selection committee (which isn’t a given for the new contract beginning in 2026), degree of difficulty must be factored into the equation.
It’s like diving in the Olympics. Anyone can nail a jackknife. How many can hit a reverse 4½ somersault in pike position?
‘We were impressed with some of the things Indiana did,’playoff committee chairman and Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel said of the Hoosiers’ 23-point loss to Ohio State. ‘We still felt their body of work was strong enough to stay in the top 10.’
Indiana’s resume is wins over three 6-5 teams (Washington, Nebraska, Michigan), and a three-possession loss to Ohio State in its only other game against a team with a winning record.
That’s some body of work.
This leads us to this week’s overvalued and undervalued of the College Football Playoff rakings:
Overvalued
No. 4 Penn State
Best win: 21-7 vs. No. 23 Illinois
Worst loss: 20-13 vs. No. 2 Ohio State.
This week: vs. Maryland.
Eye test: Exhibit A for uniform bias. It’s Penn State, it’s the Big Ten ― and sonofagun, did you see that Illinois win? (Ignore that pesky late win last week over middling Minnesota. Nothing to see here).
No. 6 Miami
Best win: 41-17 at Florida.
Worst loss: 28-23 at Georgia Tech.
This week: at Syracuse.
Eye test: The Hurricanes face the Orange this week needing a win to reach the ACC championship game. Lose, and they’re all the way out of the rankings — with no hope of an at-large spot. Miami has 14 interceptions this season, and Syracuse QB Kyle McCord – who leads the nation in passing yards – has thrown 12.
No. 10 Indiana
Best win: 31-17 vs Washington.
Worst loss: 38-15 at No.2 Ohio State.
This week: vs. Purdue.
Eye test: The drum major of the overvalued. Indiana isn’t 8-1 in the SEC. Or the Big 12, or more than likely, the ACC. What exactly does that say about the top-heavy Big Ten? It says the committee isn’t doing its work.
Undervalued
No. 8 Tennessee
Best win: 24-17 vs. No. 13 Alabama.
Worst loss: 19-14 at Arkansas.
This week: at Vanderbilt.
Eye test: The No. 3 scoring offense and No. 2 scoring defense in the SEC. But like everyone else in the best conference in college football, the Vols have struggled on the road, including a 14-point loss at No. 7 Georgia. Alabama lost three games on the SEC road, Georgia lost twice, and all three of No. 21 Missouri’s SEC losses are away from home. Translation: Tennessee can’t overlook Vanderbilt. If the Vols win, they’re in the field.
No. 15 South Carolina
Best win: 44-20 vs. No. 20 Texas A&M
Worst loss: 27-3 vs. No. 14 Ole Miss
This week: at No. 12 Clemson
Eye test: A three-point loss to LSU, a two-point loss at No. 13 Alabama, and a season of what-ifs. The Gamecocks need a big win over Clemson, and a lot of help to reach the 12-team field: Vanderbilt over Tennessee, Auburn over Alabama, Syracuse over Miami, and most important, Mississippi State over Ole Miss.
No. 16 Arizona State
Best win: 28-23 vs. No. 19 BYU
Worst loss: 24-14 at Cincinnati
Up next: at Arizona.
Eye test: QB Sam Leavitt missed the Cincinnati game, and the Sun Devils couldn’t win with nomadic backup Jeff Sims. If Leavitt is healthy, they are likely 10-1 with two wins against the rankings (including at No. 24 Kansas State). In that scenario, considering the committee’s affinity for one-loss teams, Arizona State would likely be in the top 10 and among the projected first four seeds.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.
