They’ll deny it. You bet your Golden Flakes, they will.
But when Saturday arrives and the first of the final three college football regular season weekends begins, officials in the big, bad SEC will have one of many monitors in the war room of the league offices turned to what’s unfolding in Columbus, Ohio.
Because if No. 2 Ohio State blows out unbeaten underdog and No. 5 Indiana, the odds of the SEC landing five teams in the first 12-team College Football Playoff dramatically increase. And if the Hoosiers win or keep it close?
Well then, Birmingham, we have a problem.
There are six CFP-worthy SEC teams, and unless Penn State stumbles against Minnesota or Maryland or Indiana gets blown out by Ohio State, four SEC teams will make the CFP field. It’s bad enough that the CFP selection committee virtually ignores strength of conference/schedule and has Penn State and Indiana – with a combined one win vs. teams in the College Football Playoff rankings (Illinois magically arrived in the poll at No. 25 this week) – ranked in the top five.
It’s worse that the committee has shown a clear preference to No. 3 Texas ― which has played one of the other five CFP-worthy SEC teams, and lost by 15 at home to Georgia. Alabama beat Georgia, which beat Tennessee, which beat Alabama. And Ole Miss beat Georgia, which beat Texas ― which hasn’t beaten anyone.
Get it?
Meanwhile, there’s the 13-member selection committee – which includes six athletic directors and four former coaches – valuing one-loss teams (and unbeaten Indiana) above all else. Difficulty of schedule be damned.
Indiana, the CFP darling, has the worst strength of schedule of any Power Four team.
‘We watch games and we see how teams are playing, and so we assess their body of work,’ said selection committee chairman and Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel, who all but admitted eye test is everything. ‘Watching the teams, watching the games, carries the day for most of us.’
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A look at three undervalued and overvalued teams in this week’s CFP poll.
Overvalued
No. 4 Penn State
Best win: No. 25 Illinois.
Worst loss: No. 2 Ohio State.
This week: at Minnesota.
Eye test: Wins over two Power Four teams with winning records (Illinois, Washington), a near loss at struggling Southern California, and a whole lot of nothing else. The four plays from the three against Ohio State with the game on the line should be emblazoned on the minds of the committee.
No. 6 Notre Dame
Best win: No.15 Texas A&M.
Worst loss: Northern Illinois.
This week: No. 19 Army (at Yankee Stadium).
Eye test: If you’re in the top six of the playoff rankings with three weeks to play, there should be a strong likelihood that you could absorb a loss and still make the 12-team field. But If Notre Dame loses to Army or at USC, it will fall all the way out of the top 12. Notre Dame – with an ACC-heavy schedule and two games against service academies and two games against MAC schools – is No. 6 on the strength of beating No.15 Texas A&M.
No. 8 Miami
Best win: Louisville.
Worst loss: Georgia Tech.
This week: vs. Wake Forest
Eye test: This is a joke, right? If you think Indiana and Penn State aren’t CFP-worthy, where does that leave the Hurricanes? The schedule is Indiana-bad, and Miami needed four second-half comebacks against noted heavyweights Virginia Tech, California, Louisville and Duke. Imagine Miami’s resume compared to any of the six SEC teams. Hideous.
Undervalued
No. 9 Mississippi
Best win: No. 10 Georgia.
Worst loss: Kentucky.
This week: at Florida.
Eye test: Who wants to play this team right now? Ole Miss is fourth in the nation in scoring offense (40.7 ppg.), and fifth in scoring defense (12.9 ppg.) ― and the only team in the nation in the top five of both scoring offense and defense. The Rebels lead the nation in sacks (46), and are No. 3 in long scrimmage plays on offense (190).
No. 10 Georgia
Best win: No. 3 Texas.
Worst loss: No. 9 Ole Miss.
This week: vs. Massachusetts
Eye test: Georgia’s ‘worst’ loss is to the hottest team in the nation. Georgia’s second loss is to No. 7 Alabama, and the Bulldogs have wins against No. 3 Texas, No. 11 Tennessee and No. 17 Clemson. Yeah, I’m sure the Penn State/Indiana/Miami resumes stack up to that. Hey, committee members: stop obsessing on one-loss and unbeaten teams with soft schedules, and start focusing on teams with losses against significantly better competition ― and big wins.
No. 12 Boise State
Best win: No. 24 UNLV.
Worst loss: No. 1 Oregon.
This week: at Wyoming.
Eye test: I’m going to write this until someone, anyone, on that selection committee wakes up: No. 1 Oregon needed a punt return for a touchdown, a kick return for a touchdown and a last-second field goal to beat Boise State.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.
