As we approach the third quarter of the NFL season, time is quickly running out for a number of teams, some of them once thought to be prime contenders.
Perhaps no team is feeling that more than the Cincinnati Bengals, who now face an uphill climb in the AFC, particularly because of the tough division they play in.
Similarly, the San Francisco 49ers, the defending NFC champs and a team that has made conference title game appearances in four of the last five seasons, suddenly faces the possibility of missing the playoffs altogether in large part because of the NFC’s surprisingly robust middle class.
Here are the winners and losers from Sunday of Week 11 in the NFL.
WINNERS
Bills take care of business, but the real test looms
Now that they defeated the previously unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs, the Buffalo Bills (9-2) have won four of their last five regular-season matchups against the two-time defending champions. That’s an excellent marker, one showing the best any team has fared against the most consistent dynasty in football.
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Yet, in previous seasons, that hasn’t really mattered. Since 2021, Buffalo has lost all three playoff games against the Chiefs in that span. The Bills converted 60% of their third down tries against the Chiefs on Sunday, a season worst for Kansas City’s defense. Josh Allen put the game in his hands, willing Buffalo to a massive game-sealing score on a fourth down. That’s great and all, but now the Bills must show they can beat the Chiefs — a team they may very well face in the postseason — in January, not just in the fall.
It seems unsustainable, but Steelers are winning without touchdowns
This marks the second time in 2024 that Pittsburgh failed to score a touchdown, converted six field goals and still managed to win. The first time was the season opener and Sunday, Chris Boswell converted kicks from 32 (twice), 52, 57, 27 and 50 yards.
Boswell has now converted 29 of 30 field goals (96.7%) this season, proving just how valuable he is. That it came on a day when the normally reliable Justin Tucker missed a pair of field goal attempts underscored that further. Boswell leads the NFL in points (107) by 10, and the Steelers (8-2) are riding their oppressive defense and pristine special teams to contention for the top seed in the AFC. Yet, at some point, coordinator Arthur Smith’s offense will need to be more productive.
Colts don’t compound mistake, course correct with Anthony Richardson
Even though the Indianapolis Colts may need to manage occasional turnovers from Anthony Richardson, this week showed just how badly coach Shane Steichen botched the quarterback situation by starting Joe Flacco two weeks. With Richardson’s two rushing scores against the New York Jets in a 28-27 win, it became obvious just how much more potent Indy’s rushing attack is when he presents a threat to run.
With the Colts down five, Richardson (20-of-30 for 272 yards and one passing score) led the Colts on a six-play, 70-yard, game-winning touchdown drive. He completed all three of his throws on the drive for 60 yards and ran it twice for 8 yards, including the game-winning score. Most importantly, the Colts (5-6) moved into the No. 8 spot in the AFC, one spot out of the final wild-card slot.
Dolphins are also finding their form but is it too late?
Now that they’re closer to full health, the Miami Dolphins are slowly clawing their way back up the playoff picture, positioning themselves just one game back of the Colts. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa recorded his best game of the season, completing 28 of 36 passes for 288 yards and three scores. Tagovailoa still occasionally holds the ball too long and takes unnecessary sacks, but he was notably more decisive against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Two weeks ago, Miami was 2-6 and sitting in the No. 12 spot in the AFC. The Dolphins (4-6) now are sitting at No. 9. The margin for error is slim, but Miami has the fourth easiest remaining strength of schedule (.397).
LOSERS
This feels like the end for the Bengals’ season
When Cincinnati scored 21 in a row to tie the game against Los Angeles, it felt like it was on the verge of saving its season. When the Bengals (4-7) allowed the Chargers to march down the field for a game-winning touchdown, it felt like an obituary for their playoff hopes.
The Bengals have had a frustrating season in which just about every close game did not go their way. That’s not hyperbole; Cincinnati is now 1-6 in games decided by seven points or fewer. In a hypothetical, half of those losses break for the Bengals. Cincy would then be 7-4 and in prime position to claim an AFC wild-card berth.
Are the defending NFC champion 49ers in danger of missing the playoffs?
Realistically, yes. San Francisco, though tied with the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams at 5-5, is currently in last place in the NFC West due to tiebreakers. The Arizona Cardinals (6-4) are only one game up in the division, so it’s very much wide open.
Against the Seahawks, the Niners defense was relatively solid, though the unit buckled late when the team needed a stop to preserve the game. Yet since linebacker Dre Greenlaw tore his Achilles during the Super Bowl, and with Talanoa Hufanga sidelined with various injuries, San Francisco’s defense has struggled in the red zone and on third downs. The Niners have games left against the Packers (7-3), Bills (9-2) and Lions (9-1). They’re 1-3 in division games. Most concerning for the 49ers is that they’ve failed to match the play of the better teams in the NFL; San Francisco does not have a single victory against a team over .500.
Falcons embarrass themselves, lack consistency or identity
Atlanta revamped its coaching staff, offense and quarterback outlook, and the goal was to compete for conference championships. The Falcons, as currently constructed, seem very far away from that.
A young Broncos team embarrassed Atlanta in a 32-point drubbing in which the Falcons failed to score a touchdown, averaged 2.4 yards per carry and yet again did not generate a tangible pass rush, allowing rookie quarterback Bo Nix to pop off for 307 yards and four touchdowns. The Falcons (6-5) still have a solid lead in the NFC South, with the Buccaneers (4-6) closest. Still, the Falcons are wildly inconsistent, and it’s hard seeing them competing with the NFC’s best as long as they lack an offensive identity as well as physicality and speed in their edge rush.
Are the self-destructing Ravens truly elite contenders?
No elite team self-destructs more than the Ravens, prompting the question: is Baltimore truly an elite contender if it constantly finds ways to lose?
The Ravens lost the turnover battle to the Steelers 3-1, with all three giveaways field goals. Tucker, the most accurate kicker in league history, missed consecutive field goal attempts in the first quarter from 47 and 50 yards. Tucker has now missed six field goals and one extra point this season — all of them wide left. His field goal percentage (72.7%) this year is the lowest of his career. Baltimore (7-4) was enforced for 12 penalties for 80 yards. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken inexplicably abandons the rushing game; Derrick Henry, who did have a first-quarter fumble, carried the ball just 13 times. And now the Steelers (8-2) have a nice little cushion in the AFC North.
