The SEC is down to three teams and the ACC now has a pair of teams in the USA TODAY Sports updated College Football Playoff bracketology.
Last weekend’s messiness ejected Alabama and Mississippi from the field. Tennessee is back in after blanking Texas-El Paso.
But there’s no fourth SEC team in the bracket. Instead, that fourth spot has gone to SMU. While Miami remains the pick to win the ACC, the Mustangs have moved into position to capture an at-large bid even with a loss to the Hurricanes.
This assumes a few factors. One is that SMU beats California this weekend to head into the ACC championship game with one loss. Another is that Tennessee doesn’t lose to Vanderbilt. If the Volunteers do lose, that would open up a door for Alabama or even South Carolina to get back into the field, assuming the Gamecocks beat rival Clemson.
Should this scenario unfold, the playoff will consist of four teams from the Big Ten (Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana), three teams from the SEC, the two teams from the ACC, one from the Big 12 and Notre Dame and Boise State.
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Arizona State takes over as the winner of the Big 12 and Indiana remains in the playoff picture.
The Sun Devils replace Brigham Young after beating the Cougars 28-23. That makes Arizona State the fourth team to lead the Big 12 in our bracketology, joining BYU, Colorado and Kansas State.
Key losses in the SEC bailed out Indiana after Saturday’s 38-15 loss at Ohio State. The Hoosiers are in pretty solid shape for an at-large bid with a win this weekend against Purdue.
Avoiding Wyoming’s upset bid keeps Boise State ahead of the field in the Group of Five. But the Broncos are not projected to earn an opening-round bye given the Sun Devils’ chances to add another ranked win in the conference title game.
While Boise will have the chance to do the same against UNLV in the Mountain West championship, the expectation is that Arizona State would eventually compile the résumé to come in ahead in the final playoff rankings despite owning one more loss than the Broncos.
Four teams to watch
Tulane
Army’s loss to Notre Dame removes the slim chance both the American Athletic and Mountain West champions would make the playoff. That leaves Tulane needing to beat Memphis and the Black Knights while Boise drops one of two down the stretch. In another year, the two-loss Green Wave would be a very strong Group of Five representative. But the Broncos are going to be impossible to unseat should they close things out with just one loss.
South Carolina
The Gamecocks might be the best eight-win team in the country. South Carolina has slowly climbed the rankings and could be in position to take advantage of chaos with a victory against Clemson. Importantly, this ranked win should help the Gamecocks move ahead of Alabama should the Tide win the Iron Bowl.
Iowa State
The Cyclones have gotten back on track with wins against Cincinnati and Utah. While beating Kansas State on Saturday doesn’t guarantee anything, the Cyclones would meet Arizona State should all four current Big 12 front-runners win this weekend.
UNLV
The scenario that gets UNLV into the playoff ahead of Tulane or Army starts with wins against Nevada and Boise State. Crucially, beat the Broncos would avenge one of the Rebels’ two losses. UNLV would get another boost should Syracuse beat Miami to finish with nine wins and potentially in the playoff rankings. The Orange beat the Rebels 44-41 in overtime back in early October.
