Let’s look at this thing strictly from what happened on the field. A novel idea, I know.
Texas beat Arkansas 20-10 Saturday in Fayetteville, an uninspiring effort that continued to underscore the Longhorns’ slog to the top of the College Football Playoff rankings.
Two weeks ago, in the same stadium against the same Arkansas team, Ole Miss humiliated the Hogs 63-31. A week ago, Ole Miss embarrassed big, bad Georgia by 18.
Yet if you looked at the current CFP rankings, the gap between Texas and Ole Miss is as wide as Florida State’s dreams of joining the Big Ten and reality.
And this is the problem with the playoff rankings — and more specifically, the selection committee that clearly abides by the rule of he who loses less, gains more.
Look at the Texas schedule, there’s nothing there. No signature win, no impressive run of games or undeniable statement that proves the Longhorns deserve their No. 3 ranking.
Then there’s Ole Miss, and in the CFP committee’s eyes, it’s clearly more than the beatdown of Georgia that leaves the Rebels at No. 11 in the poll. And by more, I don’t mean the 24-point win at the hottest team in the SEC (South Carolina).
By more, I mean losses. Ole Miss its has two, Texas has one.
Wait, it gets better.
Texas lost at home to Georgia — the same team Ole Miss handed its worst regular-season loss since 2018 — where it was 23-0 in the second quarter before Texas could exhale. Where coach Steve Sarkisian was so flustered, he benched starting quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate Quinn Ewers, and by the third quarter, both Ewers and Arch Manning wanted no part of the Georgia defense.
Ole Miss lost at home to Kentucky and at LSU, both on fourth-down prayer throws. Without those two improbable plays, Ole Miss is unbeaten.
And that’s the rub with the committee. There’s no nuance in the rankings, no examination of teams and common opponents and degree of difficulty.
The exact reason why the playoff was expanded to 12 teams.
This blatant avoidance of what’s playing out on the field is bad for the College Football Playoff, and bad for the game. There’s too much money involved in the process ($1.2 billion annually) for the committee to get this wrong.
The easy response is relax, there are three more weeks for this thing to play out and the committee to get it right. But that’s not the point.
Because if this is how the committee deliberates and comes to these specific conclusions, what does that mean about the rest of the poll? If something so blatant as this is ignored, where else will it happen again?
These committee decisions are critical because the No. 7-10 slots in the poll will be so close, the aforementioned arguments will be deciding factors in who hosts a playoff game, and who travels.
If a team from the south travels to a team from the midwest, and plays a December game in sub-freezing temperatures and possibly snow, or plays at home in the 50s.
If the committee can’t see something as simple as Texas’ best win is against Colorado State of the Group of Five or at Vanderbilt, and that Ole Miss has beaten Georgia and South Carolina, what else will the committee ignore for the sake of one less loss?
The hard work and heavy lifting happens on the field. Not the secluded and secretive selection committee room.
It’s no different than the confounding Bowl Championship Series rankings, where computer polls – each with its own weighted and secret formula – helped decide who played for the national title.
Think about this: we’ve taken the most important process of the college football season, and put it in the hands of athletic directors and random businessmen and women on the committee.
Rule No. 1, everybody: big wins are more important than a gut-punch of a loss.
A novel idea, I know.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.
