If Ole Miss follows Georgia win with a strong finish, it could climb the CFP seedings into a first-round host bid.
What happens if final spot comes down to a two-loss SEC team or a one-loss Big Ten team? Look out, Indiana.
Path for BYU, Miami becoming clear: Win your conference.
LSU’s College Football Playoff bubble popped Saturday night, but that hardly cleared the playoff picture.
If anything, the CFP bracket got murkier after Miami lost its undefeated credentials and Ole Miss upset Georgia.
For several weeks, I capped the SEC at four playoff qualifiers. No more. My latest projection reverts to my preseason stance that the SEC will qualify five for the playoff.
Ahead of Tuesday’s rankings update, here’s my latest prediction for the CFP bracket. Top-four seeds would receive a first-round bye, while teams seeded Nos. 5 through 8 would host first-round playoff games.
1. Oregon (Big Ten)
Dillon Gabriel retained his perch near the top of the Heisman Trophy leaderboard by tossing three touchdown passes in Oregon’s 39-18 win over Maryland. My concern about the Ducks: They haven’t played a road game against team that’s currently above-.500. What happens when Oregon must leave Autzen Stadium’s friendly confines in the postseason? Last week: No. 1 seed.
2. Alabama (SEC)
As an SEC standings logjam forms, complex tiebreaker protocols might be needed to determine one or both teams for the conference championship game. So, I can’t say with certainty Alabama will reach Atlanta. Strapped with two conference losses, the Crimson Tide require help to get there. If they they get there, I like their chances of retaining the SEC’s crown. Quarterback Jalen Milroe regained his juice, and Alabama showed no signs of its October woes, while demolishing LSU. Last week: Not in playoff.
3. Brigham Young (Big 12)
BYU spent most of its rivalry game against Utah vindicating the CFP committee’s initial lukewarm ranking of the Cougars. But, BYU just won’t go away. The Cougars used a late field goal to escape with a 22-21 victory, their fourth win by six points or fewer. The committee’s reticence toward the Cougars makes their task clear: Win the Big 12, or expect to receive rejection. Last week: No. 4 seed.
4. Miami (ACC)
Georgia Tech, in a 28-23 upset of the Hurricanes showed the playbook for beating the Hurricanes: Use a ball-control attack to keep Miami’s vaunted offense on the sideline. Georgia Tech’s pass rush unsettled Cam Ward, Miami’s star quarterback. Now, the Hurricanes might need to win the ACC to earn qualification, but here’s the thing: Ward’s so good, he’ll pull tight games out for Miami more often than not. Last week: No. 3 seed.
5. Ohio State (at-large)
If the Buckeyes keep winning – undefeated Indiana comes to town in two weeks – and reach 11-1, they’ll earn a second crack at Oregon. Beat the Ducks in the Big Ten championship, and Ohio State could vault to the No. 1 seed. Lose, and the committee shouldn’t punish OSU much, if at all. Georgia suffering a second loss increased OSU’s chance to earn the coveted No. 5 seed. Last week: No. 5 seed.
6. Penn State (at-large)
The Nittany Lions will lack a signature victory, but they tout a sturdy strength of schedule, and an 11-1 record would help create separation from a pileup of two-loss SEC teams. Plus, the committee seems willing to award points for a “good loss.’ Penn State’s seven-point loss to Ohio State presents limited harm and, in fact, puts polish on the résumé. Last week: No. 6 seed.
7. Notre Dame (at-large)
While other playoff contenders absorb body blows within conference play, the Irish enjoy the fruits of their independence. Army remaining undefeated helps Notre Dame, too. The Irish gain steam, and a toppling of Black Knights would spur the committee to solidify Notre Dame into first-round host designation. Last week: No. 8 seed.
8. Mississippi (at-large)
Ole Miss’ major investment in defensive transfers paid dividends. The Rebels controlled the lines of scrimmage, smushed Georgia, and revived their playoff quest. While other SEC contenders are at risk of additional losses, meak Florida and Mississippi State await Ole Miss. Blowout wins and a hot finish play nicely for the committee. Last week: Not in playoff.
9. Georgia (at-large)
The committee might prefer to avoid scheduling rematches of regular-season games, but if the SEC piles up bids, as I’ve laid out, then the committee probably wouldn’t have any choice but to chart at least one rematch. Georgia will host Tennessee on Saturday in game the Bulldogs can’t afford to lose. You can see from this seeding I expect Georgia to rebound and defend its home turf. Last week: No. 2 seed.
10. Texas (at-large)
Georgia losing damaged Texas’ seeding potential. If the Bulldogs had kept winning, the Longhorns could have explained away their flop against Georgia in Austin. Now that Georgia looks more ordinary than invincible, Texas comes into danger of slipping in seeding and perhaps even falling out of the field entirely, if it suffers a second loss. Last week: No. 6 seed.
11. Tennessee (at-large)
If the Vols lose to Georgia and the Hoosiers subsequently lose to Ohio State, the committee could be forced to choose between two-loss Tennessee and one-loss Indiana for the final at-large bid. Backed into a corner, would the committee really ignore Tennessee’s markedly superior strength of schedule to Indiana’s, and its victory against Alabama? Historically, the committee loves no conference quite like it loves the SEC. Last week: No. 10 seed.
12. Boise State (Group of Five)
You thought Ashton Jeanty would wear down? Never! Boise State’s workhorse tailback churned out 209 yards and three touchdowns in a win against Nevada. Army keeps the heat on Boise State for the Group of Five’s bid, but Boise will receive the spot so long as it just continues winning. Last week: No. 12 seed.
Why my latest projection does not include Indiana
Ole Miss beating Georgia crowds the cue of teams with credentials for at-large consideration. Indiana looks the part of playoff team, but its modest strength of schedule leaves it vulnerable.
Tennessee lacks a deep list of signature wins, but beating Alabama remains a feather in the Vols’ cap that Indiana can’t match unless it upsets Ohio State in Columbus.
Previously, I thought Indiana would remain positioned for a bid even if it lost to Ohio State. But, if the committee must choose between a two-loss SEC team that touts a win against Alabama or a one-loss Big Ten team that touts a win against .500 Michigan, and I suspect the SEC team will plunder the spot.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.
