Say what you will about the current state of collegiate athletics in the United States of America. But it’s indisputable that there are few other sporting endeavors that generate the same level of emotions, be they positive or negative, from fans.
That was on clear display over the most recent college football weekend, which featured everything from jubilant field rushes to angry debris tossing. Overreactions are therefore inevitable given such passion. We’re here once again to sort through a few involving the biggest-name programs, and hopefully provide a modicum of big-picture perspective.
Here are the top five overreactions from Week 8.
Alabama’s playoff chances are cooked
It’s true that the Crimson Tide’s SEC championship hopes are likely gone with a second league loss. There might, however, still be a path to the expanded 12-team playoff.
Alabama’s last three games in November are quite winnable. One is a tune-up against Championship Subdivision member Mercer, and the final two league contests are against Oklahoma and Auburn, teams in an even greater state of disarray at this writing.
It’s the pair of games over the next three weekends that will tell the tale for Alabama – a home date with Missouri next Saturday and a Nov. 9 trip to LSU. Should the Tide win both, they’ll have a fairly clear route to 10-2 with the win against Georgia also in the bank, a resume that would almost certainly be deemed playoff worthy. A split of those two and a 9-3 finish would leave matters in a much more ambiguous realm.
Whether Alabama could actually win the title should it be included in the at-large pool is a discussion for another day, but for now we must wait and see where things are in a few weeks. We understand that patience is not an abundant quality for many fan bases, but don’t write the Tide off just yet.
Texas is back – to mediocrity.
It didn’t take long for the college football universe to move from anointing the Longhorns as title favorites to wondering aloud if they’re not ready for this new conference after all. As with many such discussions, the truth probably lies somewhere between those extremes.
As has been pointed out, the foundation upon which the Longhorns’ No. 1 ranking had been constructed wasn’t as sturdy as we might have believed given the ongoing struggles of Oklahoma and Michigan (more on the Wolverines below). It is equally true, however, that Texas is hardly the first team to be humbled by an encounter with a motivated Georgia squad. Remember how post mortems for Clemson were being written after Week 1?
In short, we’ll wait and see how Texas responds to its first taste of adversity, starting next week with a visit to a suddenly frisky Vanderbilt.
Indiana is going to win the Big Ten
Most people probably didn’t believe Curt Cignetti when he made that bold pronouncement upon accepting the head coaching gig in Bloomington. But lo and behold the Hoosiers have steamrolled everything in their path en route to a 7-0 start that now has everyone’s attention.
There’s just one teensy weensy problem though. The penultimate week of the season involves a trip to Ohio State. We are in no way saying a win in Columbus isn’t possible. But if the Hoosiers do come up short there, they would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Buckeyes for a spot in the conference title game, assuming both teams win the rest of their games. There is no Penn State or Oregon on Indiana’s schedule, which is a plus in that all their other contests are winnable but a minus in that there is no opportunity to offset a potential loss to the Buckeyes.
Now with all that said, the Hoosiers do very much have a strong at-large case for the playoff should they make it to the finish line at 11-1. That might seem overly ambitious for a program that has enjoyed limited gridiron success in its history, but we shouldn’t be surprised now if it comes to pass.
Michigan could miss a bowl
On the opposite end of the Big Ten’s expectations meter we find the Wolverines, the defending national champions in name only now flailing to find any kind of offensive identity.
Aside from a home date with Northwestern, Michigan’s November slate is a veritable murderers’ row in the new-look conference. The Wolverines will be heavy underdogs against Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State, even with the Ducks and Buckeyes coming to Ann Arbor. This makes next week’s rivalry game against Michigan State a virtual must-win if the Wolverines hope to reach the six-victory threshold for bowl eligibility. Of course the Spartans aren’t likely to be terribly sympathetic having their own challenging second-half schedule ahead of them. But Michigan State has made progress under coach Jonathan Smith in recent weeks, and the Spartans will come into the Big House with confidence after showing they could solve a tough defense like Iowa’s. It won’t top the must-watch list for next week, but it’s a game to keep an eye on, especially if you’re the organizer of a bowl game with a Big Ten tie-in.
The Cougar Conundrum
30 for 30 voice: What if I told you there’s a team currently without FBS conference affiliation with an excellent chance to go 11-1 – and it’s not Notre Dame? Sure, the Fighting Irish could get there as well. But there’s another non-affiliated team that could provide the CFP with an interesting test case.
Washington State, of the once-and-future Pac-12, has made it to 6-1 with its lone blemish coming against Boise State. That would be the same Broncos’ squad that came within a field goal of the current No. 1 team. In addition to a hard-fought Apple Cup win against former league foe Washington, the Cougars also have another Power Five victory against Texas Tech in their column.
But now comes the bad news for the Cougars. That Texas Tech result lost some value over the weekend when the Red Raiders were thumped at home by Baylor for their first Big 12 loss. None of Washington State’s remaining opponents figure to add much to its schedule strength calculation. It would help the Cougars’ cause if Boise State made the playoff field, but that might require help from Notre Dame in the form of knocking both Navy and Army from the ranks of the undefeated. Those results would in turn enhance Fighting Irish’s credentials as an at-large candidate, at the expense of the Cougars and others.
As things stand, Washington State would need a whole lot of breaks to go its way to earn consideration. But complete chaos always seems to be right around the corner in this sport, so fans on the Palouse should stay tuned.
